The Great Recession is over.  Don’t pay attention to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research which says it’s too early to call this.  There is always somebody who doesn’t get it. Just look around.  GDP is growing, and the stock market is up.  Companies are hiring temporary help, the step before hiring permanent help.  Consumers are spending again, although cautiously.  Go to a mall, or a restaurant, or the movies, or an airport, and there are more people there than there were six months ago.

But that doesn’t mean that it is OK to take risks just yet.  The recovery is very fragile.  Another dip in the economy (the dreaded Double Dip) is possible, although not likely absent a policy error on the part of the Federal Government.  Some parts of the world, particularly Euroland and Japan, are having financial difficulties.  Individuals and governments are trying to pay off debt they incurred during the party that caused the Great Recession.  So you have to be prudent about where you are going to put your money—and for how long.   (more…)