Posts Tagged ‘equity allocations’
Wednesday, November 30th, 2011
November 28, 2011
To Our Valued Clients
As the attached chart shows, in the past 115 years there have been four secular bull (up) markets in the United States, and four secular bear (down) markets, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
A secular bull market is a long term upward trending market, where each successive high point is higher than the previous one.
Conversely a secular bear market is a long term downward trending market, where the trend does not rise above the previous high.
According to the attached chart, the four secular bull markets lasted 43 years in total, while the four secular bear markets lasted 72 years. Yet the cumulative return for the secular bull markets was 1,601.06%, while the cumulative return for the longer lasting secular bear markets was 4.05% (through December 2010). For that reason the DJIA over that period of time has gone from about 50 to over 10,000.
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Tags: asset management, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, Investments, market performance, Portfolio Management, Starmont, Stock Market, Wealth Management
Posted in Blog, Client Communications | 1 Comment »
Wednesday, October 12th, 2011
Find Out What’s Driving Your Investment Performance – Has Fear Replaced Reason?
We are experiencing unprecedented volatility in the financial markets. As you watch your investment performance, your stomach may be queasy from what feels like a never-ending rollercoaster ride! And the volatility continues with no apparent reprieve.
Many seasoned market analysts would say that this cycle of volatility is largely driven by headlines and will most certainly end. These analysts think that fundamentals (reasonable analysis), and presumably more predictable times, will once again prevail over the financial markets. Others disagree and claim the market has shifted from what has historically driven performance to what is being called the “new normal,” a normal that most of us will not necessarily like.
Please join us for a discussion with Starmont’s Harvey Rowen and Steve Cassriel, Vice President at Dodge and Cox Funds, a firm which has been investing on behalf of investors like you for over 80 years. Steve will talk about the role of fundamental investing-why and when he thinks fundamentals will prevail and value based investing will once again drive the markets.
See more details below…
WHEN
Conference Call – through your phone or PC with slides
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
12:30 PM TO 1:30 PM (Pacific)
RSVP
To register and receive webinar call-in instructions email Suzanne Monaco at smonaco@starmont.com
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Tags: asset management, economic outlook, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, Investments, market performance, Portfolio Managers, Starmont, Stock Market
Posted in Blog, Events | No Comments »
Monday, October 10th, 2011
October 7, 2011
To Our Valued Clients,
The last few years have been very volatile. In reporting to you on where we are today, I thought that it might be helpful to review where we have been over this wild ride, how Starmont has been able to preserve and grow your assets during this time, and what we plan to do going forward.
How We Got To Where We Are
In 2007 Starmont became concerned with the write downs US banks were taking on the mortgage backed bonds they carried on their books. Our concern was that those write downs could lead to failed banks and to a serious disruption in our country’s financial system and markets.
In December 2007 we started to sell down the equity funds held in our Clients’ portfolios. We continued selling through June 2008. We invested the proceeds of the sales primarily in bond funds.
In September 2008 Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America, and the U.S. government “invested” $80 billion in AIG.
The result was a panic in the financial markets, (more…)
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Tags: asset management, economic outlook, equity allocations, financial planning, Harvey Rowen, Investments, market performance, Portfolio Management, Starmont, Stock Market, Wealth Management
Posted in Blog, Client Communications | No Comments »
Wednesday, September 21st, 2011
| September 20, 2011
To Our Valued Clients,
We finished trimming equity allocations last week, as we said we would do in our previous e-mails.
It was a good week for equities, mostly because of positive news out of Europe, but the outlook is still cloudy-at best.
Vivian and I went to a PIMCO conference last week. They are still on the “bumpy road to a new normal” theme, and the new normal is not positive. Their current forecast for the next 3-5 years:
- –One or more members of the European Union will default or restructure their debt, causing dislocations across the financial markets;
- –The United States will deal with its debt problem through a combination of austerity (driven by Congressional Republicans) and inflation (driven by the Fed). Neither is good for the stock and bond markets;
- –The Emerging Countries (led by China, and including India and Brazil), will continue to grow, but at slower rates as they try to contain inflation in their economies.
While PIMCO is not necessarily right, (more…) |
Tags: asset management, economic outlook, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, Investments, market performance, Portfolio Management, Portfolio Managers, Starmont, Stock Market, Stocks, Vivian Groman, Wealth Management
Posted in Blog, Client Communications | No Comments »
Friday, August 19th, 2011
August 4, 2011
To Our Valued Clients,
Global equity markets were pretty ugly today. But since you have a diversified portfolio and bonds are holding their own, and since many of you raised cash in advance of the debt ceiling vote, you did not do nearly as badly as the Dow being down 500 points today would lead you to believe.
Indeed, if you have a portfolio that is 20% in domestic stocks, 12.5% in developed international stocks, 12.5% in emerging markets stocks, 45% in bonds and 10% in cash, your portfolio is down around 2.4% for the day. Not a great day, but not down the 5% represented by the Dow decline.
Why the sell off?
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Tags: Debt Ceiling, economic outlook, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, market performance, Starmont, Stock Market
Posted in Blog, Client Communications, The Market | No Comments »
Friday, August 19th, 2011
August 8, 2011
To Our Valued Clients
Another terrible day in the equity markets, with domestic stock market indexes down 5.5%-6.5%, and international stock market indexes down 7.5-8.5%. Bonds are holding their own, and US Treasury bonds actually are going up (even though they have been downgraded).
If you have a portfolio with 50% allocated to stock, your portfolio was down around 3-4% today.
But it really wasn’t the downgrade of the United States debt that was at the root of the decline today. While that action by S&P (the company that graded bonds backed by subprime loans as AA in 2006 and 2007) was the spark, the fire was caused by two factors:
1. The United States economy is weakening and on the verge of another recession; and
2. The United States government is not willing to do anything about it—which Standard & Poor’s commented upon when they issued their downgrade.
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Tags: Debt Ceiling, economic outlook, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, market performance, Starmont
Posted in Blog, Client Communications | No Comments »
Monday, July 18th, 2011
Starmont’s Harvey Rowen and Christine Benz of Morningstar, were quoted by the Associated Press regarding the Debt Ceiling, Congress and Client portfolios.
Click here to see Mark Jewel’s July 14, 2011 article, “7 tips for rebalancing your fund portfolio now” on MSN.Money.com
Tags: asset management, Congress, Debt Ceiling, economic outlook, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, Investments, Portfolio Management, Starmont, Stock Market, Wealth Management
Posted in Blog, Starmont In The News, The Market | No Comments »
Tuesday, July 5th, 2011
Click on the link below to see Harvey Rowen on MarketWatch.com discuss the dangers if Congress does not pass the legislation raising the debt ceiling this month.
US Knocking At Debt’s Door
Tags: asset management, Congress, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, Interest Rates, Investments, market performance, MarketWatch.com, Starmont, Stock Market, Stocks, Wealth Management
Posted in Blog, Starmont In The News, The Market | No Comments »
Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011
Live Very Very Long and Prosper
As more people live into their 90s and beyond, financial planning becomes even more important—and trickier
by Suzanne Barlyn
“Funding a retirement well into my 90s, though, could require investing more in equities until age 70, says Vivian Groman, senior adviser at Starmont Asset Management in San Ramon, Calif. How much risk I accept should depend on how much I’ve saved, my lifestyle and the health of the economy at that time, Ms. Groman says.”
To Read Article Click Here
Tags: asset management, Bonds, equity allocations, investing for retirement, investment management, Investments, Portfolio Management, retirement, retirement planning
Posted in Blog, Starmont In The News | No Comments »
Tuesday, June 21st, 2011
May was a down month. Global stock market indexes were down–from 1.1% (the S&P 500 index and the Russell 1000 Index–domestic large cap stocks) to 3.2% (EEM Index–emerging markets).
Global REIT indexes (commercial real estate) also were down, as was the commodities index.
Domestic and international bond indexes were mixed, with the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index up 1.3% and the JP Morgan GBI Global Bond Index down 1.2%.
However, when we evaluate the first five months of 2011 as a whole, we see that all indexes are positive for 2011 through May 31st, with the domestic stock indexes up around 6%; the international stock indexes up around 4%; and the domestic and international bond indexes up around 4%.
All Starmont Client accounts are positive for 2011 through May 31st—with the amount dependent on how their assets are allocated among the various asset groups. So far in 2011 the higher the allocation to equities, the better the portfolio performance.
The first six trading days in June have continued the negative trend from May. Some analysts have described what is happening as a “soft patch” in the economy; others have said that the U.S. economy has “hit a brick wall.” Some economists are revising their estimate of 2011 GDP in the United States to 2.0-2.5% from previous estimates of 3.0-3.5%GDP of 2% is not enough to create jobs and grow the economy at a sustainable rate.
Starmont has received a number of questions about the situation, and we thought that we would share those questions and our responses with you.
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Tags: asset management, economic outlook, equity allocations, Harvey Rowen, market performance, Starmont, Stock Market, Stocks, Wealth Management
Posted in Blog, Client Communications, Messages to Starmont Clients, The Market | No Comments »
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